The Russian-Ukrainian war is taking a new turn with China putting forward its initiative for a political settlement, revealing a 12-clause document that arguably supports Russia’s military progress on the ground.
The document starts by emphasising the need to respect the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of states, but goes on to stress that the security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and dealt with properly.
Furthermore, it stressed the necessity of lifting unilateral sanctions, all of which are clauses that support the Russian side.
This new twist in the Russian-Ukrainian war is not based on internal developments, but rather external ones, as Ukraine’s allies have taken the lead in playing a mediating role since the beginning of the crisis, and therefore Western countries, which have failed to tip the scales of the war in their favour, are trying to use mediation efforts to boost their international image.
Though these efforts are likely to fail, they indicate political activity, which in turn improves the image of these countries and expresses their desire to maintain international peace and security.
Furthermore, China’s mediation initiative does not mean that there is a breach in the wall of the Russian-Chinese alliance, given that the terms of Chinese mediation are in favour of Russia.
The document stressed that the security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously, which indicates that this is an attempt to control the narrative in Ukraine militarily and politically, thus preventing Ukraine’s allies from achieving political gains after they failed to achieve military gains.
Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, China has been a major player in supporting Russian moves, by emphasizing the importance of understanding Russian concerns, and therefore China has been an active player politically and diplomatically in defending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which means that the Chinese initiative cannot be considered in any other context, as it reflects the shared roles the 2 allies play, where Russia tries to take over the battlefield militarily and China tries to take over the diplomatic arena.
Moreover, regarding the possibility of Chinese mediation succeeding, China is depending on two factors, the first of which is its international reputation.
An effective mediator must be acceptable to both sides of the conflict, and China –a long-time promoter of Confucian principles based on spreading peace and renouncing war, cooperation and harmony to build the global community – enjoys international acceptance, given its rising status in the new international order, therefore it is more prepared to play the role of mediator.
The second factor is time, as Chinese mediation comes at a time when all the political solutions presented by Ukraine’s allies have failed and Ukraine has been exhausted militarily, which makes Ukrainian leaders more inclined to accept a political solution compared to the beginning of the war when the Ukrainian mentality was leaning more towards challenge and military resistance.
