خالد الزعتر
كاتب ومحلل سياسي

Biden … and the future of the Iranian nuclear deal

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There is no doubt that the Iranian file (the nuclear deal) is one of the most important files of importance in American foreign policy, and it will remain so, especially with regard to the new phase that the United States is on its doorstep, in light of Joe Biden’s arrival at the White House, who will find a heavy legacy left by the administration US President Donald Trump, with regard to this complex file.

Consequently, the American desire to conclude a new agreement with Iran is something that no one will disagree with, and this is something that is confirmed by the new US administration, in the era of Joe Biden. As for the features of this expected agreement, the issue of returning the nuclear file to its previous state, in the form formulated by the administration Barack Obama, it is very difficult to work to achieve this. Consequently, any new agreement will be subject to the terms and conditions of changes and developments, mainly regional, and the internal situation in Iran.

The other thing, and the most important, is that the Trump administration has succeeded to a great extent in complicating the scene of the relationship between the United States and Iran, the latest of which is the killing of the nuclear scientist (Mohsen Fakhri Zadeh) and before him (Qassem Soleimani), so that any new administration will find itself forced to deal with Iran, according to the rules that Donald Trump sought to establish.

As for regional conditions, they are no longer what they were in 2015, when Iranian influence in the region was at its height at the time, taking advantage of the chaotic situation created by the Arab Spring phase, which gave Iran stronger negotiating papers on the nuclear file table, to achieve regional political gains, and the internal situation in Iran, in addition to the conflicts within the corridors of the Iranian regime. There is also the popular situation in Iran, where the street lives move continuously, due to the low standard of living, which constitutes an escalating pressure on the Iranian regime.

On the other hand, the regional variables, and the role that the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, are playing in confronting Iranian influence in the region, which have led to weakening of the Iranian role which lost a lot of negotiating papers. All of this will restructure the negotiating table and block the way to (re-agreement) closed rooms), and will make the Gulf states a major and active player present in these negotiations, which thus block the way to the attempt to reproduce the gains that were given to Iran in the year 2015, and thus Iran will find itself a loser in both cases, whether or not it yielded to a new agreement.

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