The inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th president of the United States has sparked many projections and analysis about America’s future policies whether or not they will be similar to that of embraced by Obama administration.
These expectations are logical in principle, yet every time necessitates certain policies that govern the decision-making process. We all have seen how the euro and the pound increased in value, in the hope that something better is coming.
Now and after four years of tensed relations, the US, UK and EU are expected to be in agreement with one another thanks to Biden’s administration.
This rapprochement will most likely begin with the US rejoining the Paris climate agreement together with reaching common ground concerning regional issues especially in Libya and Syria, and most importantly Iran.
Everyone is now waiting to see how Biden will deal with Iran, simply because Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal (5+1) has given Tehran the chance to increase its uranium enrichment in addition to developing missile systems without strict supervision.
It is widely known that most of the previous US administrations had imposed different sanctions on Iran, specifically after the Iranian Revolution, something that Rouhani administration is well aware of.
Despite such sanctions, Iran is still carrying out manoeuvres and provocative activities in the Gulf of Oman by launching short-range cruise missiles, and testing new weapons, as well as increasing uranium enrichment and imprisoning American citizens.
Although Tehran usually resorts to pressure tactics to compromise, the new US administration is not expected to go easy on the Islamic republic nor be in favour of a quick nuclear agreement or yield to Tehran’s demands, especially as Israel takes a strong position against Iran.
Just recently, Israel launched massive raids on sites belonging to groups affiliated with Iran in the eastern region of Syria. That took place at a time when Israel was in touch with the US to express its concern over the new administration’s policies aimed at negotiating with Iran, following some leaks claiming the Biden would choose to negotiate directly with Teheran.
But let’s carefully consider what the US administration’s demands are! They revolve around some basics that the Tehran will reject, including dismantling ballistic missile programs and involving other countries in negotiations such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in addition to placing Iran’s nuclear program under regional or international supervision.
Another key demand is requesting Iran to stop all political, financial and military support for its proxies in the region, something which Tehran invested a lot of money, policy, and time to strategize. This demand is considered a key principle that Iran would never abandon so that it can live like a national state concerned only with its own development far from engaging in wars and development of weapons.
Therefore, the US-Iran negotiations are not projected to be easy or swift, rather there might be some sort of escalation in order to tip the scales in the negotiations. That’s why we might see some ferocious strikes or tougher economic and maybe international sanctions, similar to that of imposed by the Obama administration before signing the previous nuclear deal.