In 2024, China made notable strides in showcasing its expanding aircraft carrier capabilities. For the first time, the Chinese navy deployed both the Liaoning and Shandong carriers in joint “dual-carrier operations” exercises last October. Simultaneously, its most advanced and recently launched carrier, the Fujian, underwent extensive sea trials during the same period.
These developments underscore Beijing’s increasing naval ambitions and signal its intent to mirror the United States’ longstanding reliance on carrier strike groups as tools of maritime power projection. The appearance of multiple Chinese carriers operating together raises critical questions regarding the evolving role of aircraft carriers in shaping the future of U.S.–China strategic competition.
The Role and Significance of Aircraft Carriers
Aircraft carriers remain among the most potent symbols and instruments of naval power. They enable nations to project air power far from their home shores, independent of land-based airfields—a key advantage when regional states may deny access to military bases. This flexibility is essential in conflicts where achieving strategic objectives requires sustained and mobile air operations.
The origins of aircraft carriers date back to 1910, when the USS Birmingham conducted early flight experiments. The British HMS Argus, launched in 1918, was the world’s first purpose-built aircraft carrier. The interwar period saw both the United States and Japan refine carrier designs, ultimately transforming naval tactics during World War II.
Although battleships once symbolised maritime dominance, the 1942 Battle of Midway demonstrated the decisive impact of carrier-based aviation, relegating battleships to a secondary role. During the Cold War, aircraft carriers became central to the naval strategies of the United States and the Soviet Union. Washington leveraged its carrier fleet to project power globally, respond to crises, and maintain maritime superiority. By contrast, the Soviets favoured submarine and anti-ship missile platforms as defensive countermeasures.
Modern carriers vary significantly in size, displacement, and air wing capacity. U.S. “supercarriers” displace up to 100,000 tons, operate on nuclear power, and can deploy around 90 aircraft. Medium carriers, with displacements between 40,000 and 70,000 tons, typically run on conventional propulsion and support 30–50 aircraft. Lighter carriers, displacing 20,000 to 30,000 tons, accommodate 10–20 aircraft and are optimised for helicopters and short/vertical take-off jets.
The United States possesses the largest and most capable carrier fleet globally. However, other nations, including the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Russia, and China, operate modern carriers. China currently fields three aircraft carriers, with plans underway for additional platforms. The high cost and technological demands of carrier construction largely explain why so few states possess these assets.
China’s Aircraft Carrier Development
China’s aircraft carrier program has evolved from foreign acquisition to domestic innovation. By 2025, the Chinese Navy will have surpassed the U.S. Navy in sheer ship numbers and is rapidly expanding its naval capabilities.
In 1985, China purchased the decommissioned Australian carrier HMAS Melbourne for research purposes. Later, Beijing acquired the unfinished Soviet carrier Varyag from Ukraine, extensively refitting it into its first operational carrier, Liaoning, which entered service in 2012. This milestone marked the beginning of China’s domestic carrier-building era.
In 2017, China launched its first indigenously built carrier, Shandong, which became operational in 2019. The 2022 launch of the Fujian represented a qualitative leap. Displacing 85,000 tons at full load, Fujian is equipped with advanced electromagnetic catapult launch systems (CATOBAR), similar to those on U.S. carriers, allowing the deployment of heavier and more capable fixed-wing aircraft with extended range and payloads.
Unlike its predecessors, which relied on ski-jump ramps, Fujian’s flat-deck design and electromagnetic launch capabilities signify a major advancement. This reflects China’s ambition to field a true blue-water navy capable of extended operations far from its home waters.
The progress of Fujian underscores China’s ability to close the technological gap with the United States, developing systems that support larger air wings and more complex carrier operations. Sea trials in 2024 tested the carrier’s propulsion, electrical systems, and launch mechanisms, laying the groundwork for future operational readiness.
Moreover, Liaoning and Shandong conducted their first dual-carrier exercises in the South China Sea in October 2024—a milestone demonstrating China’s capacity for multi-carrier operations. These drills tested the coordination of air defence, reconnaissance, and offensive strike roles between the carriers, with each vessel specialising in distinct mission sets such as land attack or air superiority.
Aircraft carriers have become vital instruments for China in addressing a broad spectrum of strategic and security challenges. The advanced capabilities of its latest carrier highlight Beijing’s determination to push technological boundaries and demonstrate its ability to develop and field cutting-edge systems at a pace that outstrips many of its competitors. China has set an ambitious goal to build and deploy six aircraft carriers by 2035, aligning with its broader vision to fully modernise its military by 2027 and transform it into a world-class fighting force by 2049.
China and the Challenge to U.S. Aircraft Carrier Dominance
Despite China’s persistent efforts to develop modern aircraft carriers, the United States remains superior in this domain. The U.S. Navy currently operates eleven nuclear-powered supercarriers (ten of the Nimitz class and one of the Gerald R. Ford class), each serving as a floating airbase capable of launching dozens of fighter aircraft at a rapid tempo. Each vessel exceeds the length of three football fields, with the USS Gerald R. Ford being the largest and most technologically advanced, accommodating up to 75 aircraft.
In contrast, China has carefully studied the factors underlying America’s carrier supremacy and has embarked on an ambitious program to construct its aircraft carriers. Chinese shipyards are now capable of building more advanced carriers, and Beijing is reportedly preparing to develop a fourth carrier powered by nuclear propulsion. According to Western reports, China has successfully constructed a prototype reactor for a large warship, signalling its intention to enter the domain of nuclear-powered carriers.
However, China faces significant technical and operational challenges if it aims to rival the United States as the world’s dominant carrier power. Among these is the need to develop carrier-based aircraft specifically designed for its fleet. China is expected to introduce its J-35 stealth fighter aboard its carriers in the near future, while further investment is needed in airborne electronic warfare platforms and carrier-based early warning aircraft.
A recent Western simulation study compared the Chinese carrier Shandong with the U.S. nuclear-powered USS Nimitz. The study predicted that in any future direct engagement, the American carrier would likely destroy its Chinese counterpart, especially considering that the Shandong is not even China’s most modern carrier. However, shifting regional power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific—particularly the proximity of any such engagement to Chinese shores and within the reach of China’s Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) systems—mean that the Nimitz would face considerable threats and could be overwhelmed by Chinese forces with limited external support. Additionally, any Chinese strike against U.S. forces in this region would likely be accompanied by attacks on American satellites, cyber networks, and across the electromagnetic spectrum, severely hampering the U.S. Navy’s ability to coordinate its defences. Chinese drones, hypersonic missiles, and other advanced systems may also force the Nimitz to remain out of range, diminishing its operational impact and potentially isolating U.S. forces in the Pacific theatre.
Another comparative study evaluated China’s newest carrier, the Fujian, against the U.S. Navy’s USS Gerald R. Ford. Both carriers employ CATOBAR (Catapult Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery) systems, electromagnetic catapults, and arresting gear, allowing for the launch of heavier, better-equipped aircraft—unlike the ski-jump systems on China’s earlier carriers. Despite this technological leap for the Chinese Navy, significant capability gaps remain: Ford displaces 100,000 tons compared to the Fujian’s estimated 85,000 tons, and Ford benefits from nuclear propulsion, while Fujian uses conventional engines. Nonetheless, the Fujian represents a major milestone in China’s naval modernisation and a symbolic challenge to American carrier dominance.
Furthermore, reports indicate that as of March 2025, the U.S. Navy had only four carriers fully ready for deployment, raising concerns about declining readiness and vulnerability—particularly against hypersonic missile threats where American defences remain limited. This has prompted U.S. efforts to bolster its naval strength, but while the U.S. still leads in overall naval power, it faces industrial and logistical weaknesses in sectors like commercial shipbuilding.
China’s strategic concept for its carriers also differs from America’s. While U.S. carriers form part of a vast global network of bases, allies, and logistical hubs, Chinese carriers are closely tied to Beijing’s ambition to project power as a great global force. Although China lacks the decades of operational experience enjoyed by the U.S. Navy—especially in complex multi-carrier operations—it is accelerating its development, prioritising naval power even amid the enormous costs that once discouraged the Soviet Union and now strain U.S. naval budgets. Beijing appears willing to commit vast resources to its naval ambitions, signalling the importance of carrier development to its future military posture.
Advances in China’s Carrier-Killing Capabilities
For decades, U.S. carriers have underpinned Washington’s naval supremacy and deterrence strategy. However, China’s rapidly advancing defence technologies are eroding this advantage. In recent years, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has conducted extensive exercises simulating a Taiwan blockade—scenarios where U.S. carriers and destroyers would be crucial to breaking the siege. In response, China has invested heavily in ”carrier-killer” weaponry as part of its A2/AD strategy to prevent U.S. forces from entering the Western Pacific.
Beijing now fields a formidable arsenal of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), including the DF-21D and DF-26 series, as well as advanced cruise missiles like the YJ-12, YJ-18, YJ-83, and the hypersonic YJ-21 and YJ-27, specifically designed to threaten U.S. carriers. American analysts have warned that unless the U.S. Navy adapts new operational concepts to counter these capabilities, future confrontations could decisively favour China.
This concern echoes remarks made by current U.S. Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth in late 2024, who controversially suggested that Chinese hypersonic missiles could sink all U.S. carriers in the Pacific within 20 minutes—a timeframe considered exaggerated but illustrative of China’s progress in this field. Moreover, China is not relying solely on missile technology. In cooperation with Northwestern Polytechnical University and the China Aerodynamics Research and Development Centre, Beijing has tested submarine-launched drone swarms designed to target carriers. These drones could overwhelm carrier defences with coordinated surprise attacks and then return to their launch platforms—capabilities that surpass current U.S. developments in underwater unmanned systems, which remain hampered by limitations in manoeuvrability and survivability.
Aircraft Carriers and the Future of Naval Warfare
Aircraft carriers remain central to projecting national military power. Their ability to launch dozens of combat aircraft and operate alongside advanced surface combatants makes them vital assets in any future maritime conflict.
Reports indicate that China is planning a next-generation, nuclear-powered supercarrier—larger than the Fujian—intended to match America’s Gerald R. Ford-class vessels. Satellite imagery from the Dalian shipyard suggests this future carrier will feature an upgraded flight deck capable of launching aircraft from four catapult positions—an increase over the three available on China’s current carriers and consistent with Ford-class design.
Nonetheless, some U.S. analysts remain sceptical of China’s ability to master nuclear carrier technology, citing the complexity of such systems and Beijing’s limited experience in this domain. However, China’s success with nuclear-powered submarines suggests that these concerns may be overstated.
Looking ahead, China appears to be pursuing a hybrid approach: expanding its fleet of conventional carriers while simultaneously developing nuclear-powered designs, alongside intensified investments in anti-carrier weapon systems—including missiles, drones, submarines, and cyberwarfare capabilities. This multifaceted strategy could allow China to deny U.S. carrier groups operational freedom in the Indo-Pacific and alter the strategic balance in the region.
While China has achieved quantitative superiority in ship numbers, it now aims to close the qualitative gap by fielding ships with greater endurance and operational reach—capable of sustained deployments far from home waters. Should Beijing succeed in this endeavour, it would mark a profound shift in Pacific geopolitics, enabling China to project power on a truly global scale. For the first time in 80 years, the United States faces a credible challenge to its aircraft carrier dominance. In just 13 years, China has launched three carriers and is expected to produce more advanced, nuclear-powered vessels. This trajectory could undermine U.S. supremacy in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and lead to a future where Chinese carriers rival—or even surpass—their American counterparts in influence and reach.
In conclusion, while Chinese carriers may have limited immediate impact on the outcome of a direct U.S.-China conflict, Beijing’s determination to accelerate its carrier program underscores its broader strategic ambitions for blue-water naval power and global leadership. Given China’s proven capacity to rapidly close technological gaps in other defence sectors, it is plausible that within the next decade, China will field carrier forces capable of challenging American dominance—reshaping not only the Indo-Pacific, but the wider geopolitical landscape.●
By: Adnan Moussa
(Assistant Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Political Science – Cairo University)
