Lunar Conflicts A New Cold War in Space‭?‬

The desire to return to the moon has persisted since humans last set foot on it in 1972‭. ‬However‭, ‬for decades‭, ‬these efforts faced significant political obstacles‭. ‬Recently‭, ‬this ambition has re-emerged as a critical element of the geopolitical competition‭ ‬in today’s international system‭, ‬particularly between the United States and China‭. ‬The 1960s saw a fierce rivalry between the Soviet Union and the US to achieve the first human landing on the Moon‭, ‬culminating in the Apollo 11‭ ‬mission in July 1969‭, ‬which‭ ‬showcased America’s technological prowess and affirmed the superiority of its political and economic systems‭.‬

After the fall of the Soviet Union‭, ‬Russia joined the US in efforts to explore space‭, ‬most notably with the operation of the International Space Station‭ (‬ISS‭). ‬This cooperation gave the impression that the space race had ended‭. ‬However‭, ‬in recent years‭, ‬a‭ ‬new race has emerged—this time towards the Moon—driven by the potential commercial exploitation of lunar resources and increasing military competition in space‭. ‬This competition mirrors the Cold War‭, ‬now reignited between Washington and Beijing‭.‬

Amid this surge in lunar activity‭, ‬several Western reports have highlighted growing American concerns over China’s rapid advancements in space exploration‭. ‬Beijing is actively working towards establishing its International Lunar Research Station‭ (‬ILRS‭) ‬by‭ ‬2025‭, ‬in parallel with the US-led Artemis programme‭, ‬which aims to solidify American dominance in lunar space‭. ‬

As such‭, ‬this competition could potentially shape global geopolitical conflicts in the coming years‭, ‬with some experts even coining the term‭ “‬Lunar Cold War‭.”‬

The Aspects of the Lunar Competition

In recent years‭, ‬a significant push towards the Moon has become evident‭, ‬with over 70‭ ‬countries now possessing space programmes‭.‬‭ ‬There is renewed interest in returning to the Moon for the first time since the Apollo missions of the mid-20th century‭.‬

Unlike the first space age‭, ‬which began in 1961‭ ‬with the Soviet Union’s Yuri Gagarin orbiting the Earth and culminating in the US landing the first human on the Moon‭, ‬the second space age‭, ‬following‭ ‬the Cold War‭, ‬was marked by extensive cooperation‭. ‬This era saw the construction of the ISS and the continuous presence of international astronauts in space‭, ‬beginning in 2000‭.‬

However‭, ‬a key characteristic of this second space age was the noticeable decline in efforts to send humans on missions beyond Earth’s orbit‭. ‬Now‭, ‬the emerging third space age seems poised to reverse this trend‭, ‬with a sharp increase in human space missions‭, ‬especially to the Moon‭.‬

China has been particularly active in recent lunar missions‭, ‬surpassing the number of American missions in recent years‭. ‬This has raised alarms in the US‭, ‬especially regarding China’s potential‭ “‬first-mover‭” ‬advantage in critical lunar areas such as the lunar poles‭, ‬which hold vast reserves of water ice‭. ‬NASA‭ ‬Administrator Bill Nelson expressed concerns that Chinese astronauts may reach the Moon’s south pole before their American counterparts‭, ‬potentially establishing exclusive zones in this strategically significant region‭.‬

These concerns were exacerbated when‭, ‬in June 2024‭, ‬China became the first country to return samples from the Moon’s far side‭. ‬Its unmanned Chang’e 6‭ ‬lander successfully touched down at the lunar south pole to collect soil and rock samples‭, ‬marking China’s‭ ‬second successful landing in this region since 2019‭. ‬The far side of the Moon had never been explored by either the US or the Soviet Union‭, ‬making China’s achievement in 2019‭, ‬with the Chang’e-4‭ ‬mission‭, ‬the first successful exploration of this difficult‭-‬to-reach terrain‭.‬

Meanwhile‭, ‬Western media have drawn attention to the repeated failures of US lunar initiatives‭, ‬such as the crash of the American company Astrobotic’s‭ “‬Peregrine‭” ‬lander‭. ‬NASA also announced delays in its Artemis missions‭, ‬pushing two key lunar missions back by a year due to budgetary issues‭. ‬The US Congress’s insufficient funding has hindered the Trump administration’s pledge to return American astronauts to the Moon by 2024‭.‬

Unlike the original lunar race‭, ‬where the US conducted its Apollo missions without relying on its allies‭, ‬the new race against China features a different approach‭. ‬The Artemis Accords‭, ‬which currently include 42‭ ‬countries‭, ‬aim to form an international coalition supporting lunar cooperation and maintaining American leadership in space‭. ‬Alongside the European Union‭, ‬Canada‭, ‬and Japan‭, ‬the US is developing the Lunar Gateway‭, ‬a space station that will orbit the Moon‭. ‬The first modules are expected to launch by‭ ‬2025‭. ‬Additionally‭, ‬Washington has expanded partnerships with the private sector through the Artemis programme‭.‬

China‭, ‬on the other hand‭, ‬adopts a state-controlled Cold War model for its lunar programme‭, ‬ensuring government oversight of its‭ ‬space projects‭, ‬technology‭, ‬and data‭. ‬While this approach could enhance China’s chances of success‭, ‬it also depends on sustained economic growth and government investment‭, ‬both of which could falter if economic conditions decline‭.‬

Nevertheless‭, ‬China has recently shifted its space policy to focus on international cooperation‭, ‬launching its‭ “‬Chinese Lunar Exploration Programme‭” (‬CLEP‭). ‬In 2019‭, ‬the China National Space Administration‭ (‬CNSA‭) ‬proposed the ILRS‭, ‬marking the country’s first major multilateral lunar collaboration initiative‭. ‬In March 2021‭, ‬China signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia‭ ‬for joint lunar exploration missions‭.‬

Other nations are also competing in the lunar space race‭. ‬India‭, ‬for example‭, ‬successfully landed its Chandrayaan-3‭ ‬mission on the Moon in August 2023‭, ‬making it the fourth country to do so‭, ‬following the US‭, ‬China‭, ‬and the Soviet Union‭. ‬This marked India’s rise as a significant space power‭. ‬Other players‭, ‬such as Japan and Russia‭, ‬are still struggling to achieve lunar landings‭. ‬

Both Japan’s‭ “‬Moon Sniper‭” ‬mission and Russia’s Luna-25‭ ‬mission failed to land on the Moon in 2023‭, ‬but more international lunar missions are expected in the coming years‭. ‬

Geostrategic Importance of the Lunar Domain

Landing on the Moon is an extremely challenging task‭, ‬which explains the delay of more than five decades since the Apollo missions‭. ‬Since the mid-20th century‭, ‬only 12‭ ‬astronauts‭, ‬all Americans‭, ‬have set foot on the Moon through the Apollo missions between‭ ‬1969‭ ‬and 1972‭. ‬However‭, ‬this number is expected to increase in the coming years with the growing number of missions aimed at orbiting or landing on the Moon‭.‬

There is a broad international interest in lunar missions and the extraction of lunar resources‭, ‬as demonstrated by efforts from‭ ‬the US‭, ‬Russia‭, ‬India‭, ‬Japan‭, ‬South Korea‭, ‬and various private companies‭. ‬However‭, ‬China remains the only nation with a long-term vision for expanding its lunar activities and harnessing the Moon’s vast resources‭. ‬Additionally‭, ‬it is the only country that‭ ‬has invested heavily in future space technologies in recent years‭, ‬such as space-based solar power‭, ‬which could help power the‭ ‬lunar base China plans to establish near the Moon’s south pole‭.‬

Meanwhile‭, ‬in February 2024‭, ‬the American company‭ ‬“Intuitive Machines”‭ ‬achieved success with the landing of its unmanned spacecraft‭ “‬Nova-C‭,” ‬also called Odysseus‭, ‬near the Malapert A crater close to the Moon’s south pole‭. ‬This landing marks a historic event for the US‭, ‬being its first lunar landing in over 50‭ ‬years‭, ‬even though it was‭ ‬an unmanned mission‭. ‬This could pave the way for a new generation of American astronauts to return to the Moon‭.‬

While the 20th-century space race was heavily influenced by political conflicts‭, ‬the current century’s race will centre on economic competition‭. ‬Many startups and aviation companies worldwide are getting involved in lunar missions and developing commercial‭ ‬lunar landers‭. ‬Some literature has even coined the term‭ “‬Moon Economy‭” ‬to describe the financial gains companies are making through their lunar-related activities‭.‬

Some observers believe that the current‭ “‬lunar war‭” ‬could have a decisive impact on the future competition between China and the‭ ‬US for dominance in the international system‭. ‬Just as the Apollo program in the mid-20th century‭, ‬which resulted in humans landing on the Moon‭, ‬was a pivotal moment that solidified American technological superiority over the Soviet Union‭, ‬the new lunar cold war could be crucial in shaping the emerging global order‭.‬

Rising International Focus on Lunar Militarisation

Despite the Outer Space Treaty of 1967‭, ‬which prohibits the militarisation of the Moon and any national claims of ownership‭, ‬the‭ ‬intense international competition in recent years has heightened the possibility of militarising the Moon and increasing conflicts over its control‭. ‬In 2020‭, ‬the head of the US Space Force referred to the Moon as a‭ “‬key terrain‭.” ‬The US Air Force Research‭ ‬Laboratory is funding a new experimental satellite called Oracle‭, ‬which is set to launch in 2026‭ ‬to monitor the space between the Earth and the Moon‭. ‬Given the US military’s extensive experience monitoring spacecraft orbiting Earth‭, ‬Washington appears to‭ ‬be leveraging this expertise to expand its influence on the Moon‭, ‬potentially providing enhanced intelligence for space-related‭ ‬government activities‭.‬

In recent years‭, ‬the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency‭ (‬DARPA‭) ‬has also increased its focus on the Moon‭, ‬launching three major projects‭. ‬The first is the‭ ‬“Novel Orbital and Moon Manufacturing‭, ‬Materials and Mass-efficient Design”‭ (‬NOM4D‭) ‬program‭, ‬which aims to develop precise systems for the US Department of Defense‭. ‬

The second is‭ “‬LunA-10‭”, ‬targeting the development of future lunar infrastructure‭. ‬The third project‭, “‬Lunar Operational Guidance for Infrastructure Consortium‭” (‬LOGIC‭), ‬aims to establish international technical operating standards for the Moon‭. ‬

The growing emphasis on lunar technology from a US Department of Defense-affiliated agency has sparked concerns about furthering‭ ‬the militarisation of the lunar surface‭. ‬The new space race‭, ‬centred on the Moon‭, ‬could potentially escalate existing Earth-bound conflicts and tensions into space‭.‬

The interest in lunar militarisation is closely linked to the rise of military space activities in general‭. ‬The US is preparing‭ ‬to deploy the‭ “‬Remote Terminal Modular System‭” (‬RTM‭), ‬a new ground-based jamming system designed to disrupt hostile satellites during wars and conflicts‭. ‬Conversely‭, ‬some American officials warned during the annual Aspen Security Forum that Russia and China will likely deploy space weapons soon‭.‬

Current Features of Lunar Militarisation

The lunar space has become a potential strategic asset for military purposes‭, ‬primarily due to the Moon’s unique environment and‭ ‬its proximity to Earth‭, ‬making it an attractive arena for military applications‭. ‬

There are diverse ways to utilise the Moon as a strategic military asset‭. ‬One of the most notable is establishing a permanent presence on the Moon‭, ‬through constructing advanced bases‭. ‬

Such bases would offer a stable platform for space and Earth surveillance‭, ‬thereby improving early warning systems and intelligence gathering‭. ‬Additionally‭, ‬having a permanent presence on the Moon could help deploy various military assets‭, ‬protecting critical space infrastructure and deterring adversaries‭. ‬

Furthermore‭, ‬military forces stationed on the Moon would gain a significant advantage in terms of flexibility and response time‭,‬‭ ‬as lunar-based military assets could be quickly deployed to different locations in Earth’s orbit‭, ‬allowing for rapid response during conflicts‭.‬

On the other hand‭, ‬there are growing concerns about nuclear threats in orbital space‭, ‬particularly after Russia’s anti-satellite test in November 2021‭. ‬In this context‭, ‬there is increasing anxiety that competing international powers might attempt to gain control over the currently limited points of interest on the lunar surface‭, ‬restricting access to these areas‭. ‬

These concerns are further exacerbated by the fact that international powers‭, ‬especially China and the US‭, ‬are now working in shared locations on the Moon‭, ‬which could result in operational risks and potential conflicts over resources and competition zones‭. ‬

Moreover‭, ‬the possibility of increased tensions due to the growing risk of collisions in light of the intensified lunar activity‭ ‬cannot be ruled out‭.‬

Some estimates suggest that the US has current plans to deploy weapons in space‭, ‬including some aimed at the far side of the Moon‭, ‬alongside military satellites intended for lunar orbit to conduct espionage‭. ‬These goals seem to be longstanding‭, ‬dating back‭ ‬to US aspirations from the mid-20th century‭. ‬

However‭, ‬at the time‭, ‬these ambitions were hindered by the high costs and insufficient technological capabilities‭. ‬Yet‭, ‬the features of the new Cold War in the international system‭, ‬coupled with significant technological advancements‭, ‬have led Washington to reconsider its previous ambitions regarding lunar militarisation‭. ‬

This is likely one of the reasons behind the creation of the US Space Force in 2019‭, ‬a branch of the US Armed Forces‭. ‬Similarly‭,‬‭ ‬some Western reports have warned of ongoing Chinese efforts to deploy military equipment on the Moon during their exploratory missions‭, ‬aimed at protecting their long-term presence near the lunar south pole‭.‬

The Future of the Lunar Cold War

There is currently intense competition to establish a sustainable presence at the Moon’s south pole‭. ‬Given the vast water and mineral resources in this area‭, ‬both the US and China are working towards setting up lunar bases there‭. ‬Achieving this will be a decisive point for whichever side manages to establish a presence first‭. ‬

One of the key conflicts surrounding the Moon involves competing international powers trying to gain early access to certain strategic locations‭, ‬laying claim to them‭, ‬and preventing other parties from landing in these areas‭.‬

In the coming years‭, ‬we are likely to witness an escalation in international competition over the lunar domain‭, ‬especially given‭ ‬the current political willingness of major powers to spend large sums on lunar missions‭. ‬For instance‭, ‬the total expenditures of the Artemis programme are estimated to reach approximately‭ $‬93‭ ‬billion by 2025‭, ‬and it is expected that commercial companies will play an increasingly significant role in this lunar competition‭.‬

Legal considerations pose a major challenge linked to lunar militarisation‭, ‬as there is still a lack of binding regulations that‭ ‬limit the potential arms race on the Moon and in outer space in general‭. ‬

While the 1967‭ ‬Outer Space Treaty prohibits nations from placing weapons of mass destruction on the Moon or in space‭, ‬it does not explicitly ban the deployment of conventional weapons or the establishment of military bases‭.‬

With the likelihood that either the Chinese or the Americans will be the first to return humans to the lunar surface in the next‭ ‬few years‭, ‬this will add a new dimension to the competition between the two nations‭, ‬further intensifying their already tense relations‭. ‬

The side that manages to lead in this field is expected to dominate the setting of standards and rules governing the utilisation‭ ‬of the Moon’s resources and areas of influence‭. ‬●

By‭: ‬Adnan Mousa Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Economics and Political Science‭, ‬Cairo University

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